Average output loss by country grouping from a simulated global fossil fuel supply disruption (MINDSET model). Bars show average absolute loss per country (US$ billions); dots show average percentage change in output.
Source: MINDSET GLORIA model results (164 countries). Country classifications from World Bank (2025). Oil trade and consumption categories based on IEA/EIA data. Output loss reflects combined effect of petroleum and natural gas price shocks on total production. Regions sorted by % loss (largest first). MENA = Middle East & North Africa; LAC = Latin America & Caribbean; EAP = East Asia & Pacific; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; ECA = Europe & Central Asia.