Average percentage increase in production costs by country grouping, based on the MINDSET model scenario simulating a global fossil fuel supply disruption (164 countries).
Source: MINDSET GLORIA model scenario file (164 countries). Country classifications from World Bank (2025). Oil trade and consumption categories based on IEA/EIA data. Petroleum price shocks vary by country (reflecting import dependence and market integration); 16 countries absent from the scenario file receive only the universal 12% baseline petroleum shock. Natural gas shock is uniform at 81.8% for 148 individually calibrated countries; the remaining 16 receive no gas shock, which pulls group averages below 81.8%.